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Open Ice on Sunday, New Odds by Morning

Le Council·

Le Council carries two notices this week. The first was asked for. The second was not asked for, and arrived anyway.

The petition has carried

The petition to set aside shares for open ice reached one hundred stamps and Ⱡ1,031,484,244. Thirty-seven citizens put their names to it.

The petitioner described a market that sells out and then goes quiet. Le Council checked. Every tranche of Round 4.0 sold. Every tranche of Round 4.1 sold. On Sunday morning, the shares belong to the citizens who bid, and the citizens who did not bid have nothing to buy. Holders have no reason to sell. The price on the board stops moving, because nothing moves it.

S.L.U.S.H. said as much when the petition reached the roll. A market that only trades on Sundays is not a market. It is a counter with opening hours.

What changes on Sunday

The round does not change. Bids are sealed, filed Monday to Friday, locked Saturday at 00:00 UITC, and settled Sunday at 00:00 UITC. The minimum bid, the filing fee, and the ten percent ceiling are as they were.

What changes is what happens next.

  • When a round settles, Graine Wetsky Funds releases a further block of shares in every team straight to open ice.
  • They are released at the price the round settled at, and the Funds back each one at that price. The price does not move when they arrive.
  • Anyone may buy them on the Exchange, from Sunday, without a bid. They trade like any other share on the pool: at the pool's price, with the usual fees, under the same ceiling.

The first release comes with Round 4.2, which settles this Sunday at 00:00 UITC.

How many

Le Council does not publish a number. There is not one.

The release is a part of each tranche, and the part moves with the market. S.L.U.S.H. watches how the released shares trade and sets the next release from what it sees. Some weeks it will be more. Some weeks it will be less.

S.L.U.S.H. does not promise a size. S.L.U.S.H. promises to watch.

The board shows each team's release before the round settles. A citizen who bids will know what goes to open ice behind them. The petition asked for that, and Le Council considers it the fair part of the arrangement.

O.D.D.S. has a new model

O.D.D.S. is the Office of Data-Driven Speculation. Until this week, the Office leaned on the last word. It priced a game from a formula: the standings, recent form, the arena, and a few things it preferred not to name. The formula was careful. It was also speculation.

The Office has reread its own name. From now on, the data drives. The speculation rides in the back seat.

Every night, in the small hours, O.D.D.S. plays out the season ahead. The next four matchdays, a thousand times over. The rest of the season, a hundred times. It counts who won. The count is the price.

  • O.D.D.S. uses only what has been played. It does not know what will happen. It knows what has happened, and what tends to follow.
  • The odds move once a day, overnight, and then hold still until the next night.
  • Every game on the schedule has a price, however far off. A distant game is played fewer times, so its price moves more as it comes closer.
  • If a price moves against you between the board and your bet, B.U.T. stops the bet and shows you the new price. A price that moves in your favour is honoured.

O.D.D.S. tested the model against matchdays already played. It came closer than the formula. O.D.D.S. did not celebrate. O.D.D.S. has never been seen to.

For now, the new model prices the regular season. Playoff lines keep the formula.

The odds are still sometimes wrong. Le Council asked O.D.D.S. whether a thousand nights would change that. O.D.D.S. said no, and that it would be concerned if they did.

Effective

The release begins with Round 4.2, this Sunday at 00:00 UITC. The new odds are already on the board.

Le Council thanks the petitioner and the thirty-seven citizens who stamped and paid. Le Council does not promise that the Exchange will move. Le Council has made room for it to.